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IOP@FSU survey shows Biden with small lead in Florida

A new poll of Florida voters, sponsored by the Institute of Politics at Florida State University (IOP@FSU) and conducted by YouGov, indicates that former Vice President Joe Biden has a small lead on President Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election race in Florida.

If the election were held today, 48% of respondents indicated that they would cast their ballots for Vice President Joe Biden. This was 2 percentage points more than the 46% of respondents who indicated they would vote for President Donald Trump.

“It looks like all eyes will be on Florida again,” said IOP@FSU director Hans Hassell and associate professor of political science at Florida State University. “This is an important state, and the presidential
race in Florida remains close just as it always seems to be.”

Approval of Donald Trump

The poll revealed an increasingly polarized but closely divided electorate not just in the presidential election but also in voters’ evaluations of President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden. When asked to rate the job President Donald Trump is doing as president, 49% approved of his job, while 48% disapproved.

There were, however, strong differences between Democrats and Republicans, with 92% of Republicans approving of President Trump’s job performance while only 7% of Democrats had asimilar view. Independents were more closely divided, with 47% approving and 48% disapproving of the president’s job performance.

Favorability of Joe Biden

Voters’ evaluations of Joe Biden are similarly divided. When asked about their opinion of Joe Biden, 45% indicated they had a favorable opinion of the former vice president, while 48% had an unfavorable opinion. As before, these opinions varied by partisan affiliation. For Democrats, 88% had a favorable opinion, while 5% had an unfavorable opinion. For Republicans, 10% had a favorable opinion, while 87% had an unfavorable opinion. Again, independents were more closely divided, with 37% having a favorable opinion and 51% having an unfavorable opinion.

Yet, despite the close partisan contest, a majority of voters remain largely confident that ballots will be cast and counted accurately. Overall, 65% of respondents indicated that they were confident that votes would be cast and counted accurately. A small majority (53%) indicated they were confident that mail ballots would be cast and counted accurately; however, large majorities of respondents indicated they were confident that early in-person ballots (88%) and Election Day in-person ballots (90%) would be cast and counted accurately.

Confidence in election process

The IOP@FSU/YouGov survey also found voters were diverse in their plans about how to vote. Overall, 44% of respondents indicated that they would vote by mail, with 30% indicating that they would vote early in-person, and 24% indicating they would vote in-person on Election Day.

“Floridians remain largely confident in the voting process,” said Hassell. “Voting is an essential component of a strong democracy, and we can be confident that voters largely trust our system to work as it should.”